Monitoring and Early Warning of Violent Conflict in South Sudan Report #3.

Six years of conflict in the country have resulted in over 380,000 deaths, 2.5 million refugees, and nearly 2 million internally displaced people. And despite the signing of a peace agreement in August of last year, episodes of violence continue to flare. In this past week alone, cattle raiding violence left almost a dozen dead while reports from organizations including the United Nations Mission in South Sudan detail human rights abuses that continue to occur in spite of the signing of a peace agreement.

We believe the ability to predict violence provides critical information for individuals and organizations working to prevent violent conflict before it spreads. These reports mark our foray into statistical modeling of offline violence based on online, open-sourced data.